Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes)

Number of papers: 6

Oceanic passage of hurricanes across Cay Sal Bank in The Bahamas over the last 530 years — Marine Geology, 2022; Winkler et al.

“We present a 530-year record of hurricane passage from Hine’s Blue Hole on Cay Sal Bank, The Bahamas. Hine’s Hole has an accumulation rate of 2–3.2 cm/yr, making it among the highest-resolution hurricane reconstructions to date. Unlike many paleo-hurricane reconstruction sites, Hine’s Hole is not surrounded by coastal landmasses that can dampen currents and waves produced by hurricanes, so it archives most ≥Category 1 hurricanes passing within 115 km during the 170-year instrumental record (1850 CE-present) and may also document intense tropical or winter storms. Hine’s Hole archives ~16 intense storms per century from 1850 to 2016 CE, but documents three periods from 1505 to 1530 CE, 1570 to 1620 CE, and ~ 1710 to 1875 CE with over twice as many intense storms per century.”

In other words, there were far more big storms before 1850 than there have been since.

Understanding of the Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Intensity: A Review — Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2021; Wu et al.

“Although theory and modeling consistently indicate an increasing trend in tropical cyclone intensity, uncertainty in the historical datasets of tropical cyclones, incomplete understanding of mechanisms for the basin-wide intensity change, intertwined natural variabilities, the considerable model bias in the projected large-scale environment, and poorly-simulated inner-core structures of tropical cyclones lead to relatively low confidence in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate change.”

Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming — Nature Climate Change, 2022; Chand et al.

Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. ... The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century — Nature Communications, 2021; Vecci et al

Occasionally, something like this slips through: “We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend.” But then they save their reputations by tacking on: “We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.” That should clear everything up.

Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021 — Geophysical Research Letters, 2022; Klotzbach et al.

Abstract: This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short-lived named storms, 24-hr intensification events of ≥50 kt day−1, and TC-related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short-lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The significant decrease in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend toward a more La Niña-like base state from 1990 to 2021, favoring North Atlantic TC activity and suppressing North and South Pacific TC activity.

Catastrophes of the 21st Century — SSRN, 2021; Roger Pielke, Jr.

An excellent and very readable paper on risk. The author argues that we don’t categorize risk well. We are myopic about the future and don’t pay enough attention to unfamiliar possibilities.